CIP 138 - 2024 Budget: Top 6 Immigration Takeaways
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Hello, everyone, welcome back to Episode 138 of the Canadian Immigration Podcast. We are here recording one day following the release of the 2024 budget by the government. These are our six key takeaways that relate to immigration and what we can expect in the future. And as we know, where the money is applied, that's where policy follows. Welcome, Alicia. How are you doing?
"I'm doing well, Mark. And I think this is timely. It's important because people are trying to figure out how to plan their lives. You're absolutely correct. When we look at where the dollars are flowing, that is going to provide some key insight for individuals about what's going to be happening and flowing from that from an immigration standpoint."
The Canadian immigration process can be complex and frustrating. With the Canadian Immigration Department making it virtually impossible to speak to an officer, there are a few places to turn to for trusted information. The Canadian Immigration Podcast was created to fill this void by offering the latest on immigration law, policy, and practice. Please welcome ex-immigration officer and Canadian immigration lawyer, Mark Holthe, as he is joined by industry leaders across Canada sharing insights to help you along your way.
"When you trace the dollars, when you take a look at the priorities that are sometimes embedded or almost hidden within the larger text, you can get an idea of what they're thinking about in the future, especially for immigration. Now, one of the things that we're doing here is we're pulling out our six key takeaways. Because the budget doesn't just talk about immigration, it talks about everything and how the Canadian tax dollars are going to be spent. And if you were to click on the PDF, I think it's over 450 pages. So you guys are in luck, because Alicia and I are going to break this down. And we're, like I said, gonna pull out at least from our perspective, the top six key takeaways. So Alicia, let's dive right into it right now. And number one on our list is stabilization of the refugee system. And I think it makes sense to provide a little context here, because we have a situation where over the last number of years, the demand for asylum in Canada is well and has for a long time. I guess even longer than more recently, it's been increasingly expanding to the point where the system is really struggling to keep up. And in the budget itself, there were references to some of the steps that the government is going to be taking to stabilize the refugee system. And what do they mean by stabilize? Well, they've got two prongs that they're going to be approaching. One is to take steps to reduce the number of asylum claims that are made in Canada. And it's interesting because, you know, right back in, I can't remember when the Liberals first came in, was it 2015 I can't remember it's all a blur. They're one of their main campaigns was Canada's open for asylum. And at the time, there was the war in Syria and there's a whole bunch of mess and as Canadians we take great pride in opening our doors to those who are suffering through whatever humanitarian crisis, and I think that's something that we should all be very, very proud of. But when you have a really welcoming system, you also have to have the infrastructure to be able to deal with the increasing demand. So what the government is struggling with right now is, it's a pretty successful program. And there are so many claims right now that it's hard for the system to keep up. So there's large backlogs, there's an inability to process the claims in a timely fashion. So people are stuck in limbo for a long period of time. And that's one trying to reduce the intake. But then number two, where the funding is also being attributed, and it's going to IRCC, the Canada Border Services Agency, the IRB, and it's to remove people when their claims are denied. And so those two prongs are kind of what they're focusing on. And so as we look at the impact on asylum in Canada, this is, you know, this is just the beginning. And we look at Mexico, Alicia, which was one of the top countries in terms of asylum claims, they took a pretty significant step recently, didn't they?"
"Yeah, and so this is one of the things that they're doing, they keep tabs on source countries for refugee claims. And they realized that a number of Mexican citizens were claiming refugee status in Canada once they came because they were visa-exempt. And so the issue with that, of course, is if you have a high rate of refugee claimants, yes, it is, it is perfectly legal, once you come and enter the country at the port of entry, to make a refugee claim that is not breaking the law, but it is seeking permanent entry without having a permanent resident visa or having applied for an economic category, and therefore, it's going to stream you into that refugee stream. So in order to clamp down on the number of claims that they're getting, on the front end, they instituted a partial visa requirement. But for a number of Mexican citizens, it will require a new visa because it will have canceled their eTA, their existing ability to be here without a visa. So that's one significant thing. And the other thing, Mark, you and I talked about this on our previous podcast, was this new requirement in the change of legislation that was just recently passed for the regulations 243.1 and 243.2, which is making it clear that when somebody has been issued a removal order, it will automatically cancel their TRV, their eTA, a TRP if they have one, and also if it becomes enforceable. So not just when it's made, but when the removal order becomes enforceable, that's going to take away automatically cancel existing work permits and study permits. So the combination of these things is really going to make sure that refugee claims are a little bit more curtailed from the front end. And we have also seen some positive developments with, for example, the Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot (EMPP). So, those economic mobility pathways pilot program, where the government does want to continue to support refugee claimants, but they really want to make sure that those people have already been found to be refugees outside of Canada, through a UNHCR or another international designated organization. And then they want to match them with employers in Canada. And they've been integrating that with, for example, through the Provincial Nominee Pathway program. So those are positive developments, but they are trying to make sure that refugees are properly integrated."
"And that makes sense, Alicia, too, you know, you have refugees that have been in refugee camps for years waiting for their opportunity to come to Canada. And if the system is overrun with claims for individuals that come through various processes, they have to have a way to manage the intake. And I think this is what they're now realizing is causing a lot of these repercussions that we're now seeing within the infrastructure within Canada. We're just not capable of handling and properly caring for and taking care of the people that are here, whether they're coming as asylum seekers, whether they're coming as temporary residents, like international students, or permanent residents. And so there's an obligation on our part to make sure that if someone applies for a study permit, for instance, that they actually have a place to stay and to live. And we're not even addressing the corresponding repercussions to just Canadians and permanent residents generally who are struggling to find places to live. And I was telling you, I think recently, or in one of the past podcasts, we were looking for a place for my daughter Jessica and her new husband Seth to live in Lethbridge here and it was really tough, really, really tough. And so those are realities, the housing crunch, all the social services and what we'll get to those things going forward. But so, stabilization of the refugee system, that's number one. Number two is kind of in a way we've hinted at this a sustainable immigration strategy. So context, immigration traditionally has not tracked or put caps, well, they track but they haven't put like a cap or a plan in place for how many temporary residents they intend to allow in each year. And, you know, to a large extent, those who applied as long as they met the requirements, they would be able to come in, and it has resulted to some extent in, in our international student numbers really expanding significantly. And, you know, the impetus of, of Express Entry, or at least the creation of Express Entry back in 2015, played a huge role in, you know, what now we're seeing is somewhat of an imbalance in the number of temporary residents compared to, well, really where the government wants us to be, which it appears to be about 5% is what they're targeting in the next few years. So people, you know, will ask the question, Well, how did we get to a million international students in Canada, and it's pretty easy. You look back to January 1, 2015, when Express Entry was launched. And that was the first time where a system was put in place to select candidates based on their human capital. And to a large extent, their Canadian experience, to the point where Express Entry has evolved over the years. Such that pretty much unless you speak French, which is, that's kind of an outlier, that's something that's recently a horse in the race, that's kind of taken the lead on, you know, giving yourself the best chance of immigrating. French is definitely up there now. But over time, people started to realize that based on human capital alone, their language ability, their age, their work experience, you know, their education, that those factors alone, even if they were rock stars, would not be enough, because of the bonus points you get for having experience in Canada, whether that study whether that's work. And so when people are not getting those invitations to apply through the Federal Skilled Worker Program, when you're outside of Canada, because your scores are just too high, people then look to the International Student Program, to get their entry into the Canadian market to get the education points. And then of course, the work permit points, which really make a difference. And so some, in some cases, people were able to get job offers to get extra points if they're outside of Canada, but those are really rare. And so most people look to the International Student Program as a mechanism or springboard to hopefully get PR, and that played a huge role in in the, you know, this imbalance, I guess, if you will, within our levels."
"And added to that, too, is just the spillover effect from from COVID From the pandemic where we had a whole number of people who were prevented from leaving because of international travel restrictions. So we had the government extending their status through various temporary measures. And then now we have a large number of people who are trying to find pathways to permanent residence. So that also kind of contributed to the situation that we're in right now."
"Absolutely. All right, jumping to number three support for newcomers. Now, two main supports that they're looking to provide is legal aid. So when individuals need access to immigration lawyers to assist them, in whatever, you know, if it's, if it's some asylum or refugee claim they're making, then there, additional funding is being provided to legal aid to provide people with access to counsel. And, and then in addition to funding for legal aid, they've also included funding to assist with the world of credential recognition, which is, has been on this, you know, it's been on the discussion table for years. And, and it's I don't know, if the $50 million that they're allocating to streamline this recognition of foreign credentials, we'll see to what extent it can actually bear fruit. And I think if they take, you know, an industry by industry approach to it, like health care, nursing, those are areas where they really do want to fast track to get the people here because our our health care system is really struggling, we need more doctors we meet we need more nurses, we need more health care practitioners to to assist with our aging population. So when it comes to credential recognition, that's something that has always been on the table. And, you know, but the reality is, once again, this this type of a thing is still a provincial matter. And to a large extent, it rests with the professional governing bodies, and they do tend to take more of a gatekeeper approach. And without a doubt, we don't want to lower the bar and then create, you know, you know, problems while public safety issues. If you're looking at some of the professions that are there for a reason to protect the public and ensure that there's this her level of competence. But there's a lot of people Alicia that are highly talented and, and capable to come in and work in these various regulated fields that desperately need them. So the supports are, it makes sense to me that they would allocate funding to that."
"And credential recognition is huge, not just for professions, but also for trades. And so that's one thing where, over the years, there has been a move towards greater transparency for accreditation organizations. So that now I think all the accreditation organizations have a process that's publicly listed on their website, they show what the fees are, what their timelines are. And they have basically a way for people to get or understand when they will get a decision on their credential recognition, a lot of the professional associations have some sort of registration process where you can at least register and start working. And then once you get your final accreditation, you know, then you've got your designation. And in the meantime, you're kind of under an assessment phase where you are working under supervision, and you have some sort, usually some sort of testing requirement or knowledge exam as part of that process."
"Yeah. And right now, we're kind of wrestling with this a little bit with a company that we're working for. When I first started my practice, Alicia, I did a lot of trade work. So there was a company that specialized in recruiting for Mexico, and a great little company, I remember going down there, and helping them to set up their office, and they would have lineups of individuals looking to come work in Canada, and it was at the time when they had the low skilled worker program, you could come in for a year, but then you'd have to go, you'd have to leave for a few months before you can then apply to come back again. And it was all designed to ensure that they didn't integrate that they you know, that truly, it was temporary. And then they would come work in Canada, then they'd go home have a little break, then come back again. And so within the trades, there was a really high demand. And I remember one year, the company brought in over 1000 workers to Alberta to the Calgary Edmonton area. And, and you know, when you when you think about that whole, that whole process, and you, you look at just what the government is trying to do right now, they're, they're definitely recognizing there's been an imbalance. And there, you know, now if we look to number four, here, we'll pull it up, they're looking to try to adjust these levels. So I wonder if what was old is going to become new again. And I wonder if they will, you know, go back into the back cupboard, in the kitchen there and pull out one of the policies that was much more cautious and measured than then the way the programs have been administered today. And, you know, it's easy to look back in hindsight and say, well, with the International Student Program, we, you should have seen that they were the numbers, we're gonna balloon that where there's numbers, that it's big business, there's, you know, big dollars involved, and that people would look to take advantage of that. And, you know, in setup schools that maybe are, are not as reputable and solely designed to, you know, to make money and to secure post grad work permits without providing the same quality of education that we'd hoped for, you know, and when, you know, institutions are underfunded by provinces, that they would use whatever mechanisms they can to ensure that they were able to function and provide the services and have the quality of, you know, excellent quality of instructors and professors. And all of that costs money. So it's not surprising, but But yeah, the adjustment of resident temporary resident intake, we're seeing that right now, or are we not like they've already started to institute that?"
"Yeah. And so one of the ways that they're well, and as you said, Mark, right off the bat, it's a brand new thing for the federal government to be setting targets for overall levels of temporary residents. And it makes sense from a programming standpoint, especially because they have to hire officers, they have to have people who are going to adjudicate all these claims, they're watching their wait times and trying to make sure that you know, those processing times for a temporary resident visa aren't nine months, right. So there's things that they are looking at, to try to proactively manage the entire system, and hopefully to then be able to have a better ability to make policy decisions and say, you know, what, we're looking at this overall. And these are the temporary residents that we find are going to best have the opportunities to settle and become economic contributors to Canada, or what have you. So it makes sense that they are finally setting targets on these. And hopefully that will eventually result in better processing times overall, it will result in more transparency. Right now, I think part of the risk is that people just don't know that this is happening. And so there is still the opportunity to be taken for a ride by a bad actor who's just trying to, okay, I'm gonna get you into Canada on a study permit, and they don't understand that now there's a provincial attestation letter requirement, or I'm going to help you come on a TRV. And it's super easy. But wait a minute, you know, this process is undergoing changes. So I think, hopefully, overall, it will lead to better policy. And in the meantime, people need to be aware that if somebody's telling you, this is easy, and they're just gonna get it for you, no problem, just give them a whole bunch of money. Make sure to think twice about that."
"Yeah. And, you know, Alicia, I look at the consults, like they tell a story, right. We know what's happening, the trends and immigration because people start booking consultations with common themes. And, you know, I just had a consultation with a couple, from South America who had received an admission to a school, a public college, actually, and it was a one year program. And they did have the ability for the postgraduate work permit, but now the spouse can't get a spousal open work permit. And the question was, well, is it worth it? Do we continue to go down this path, and I was quite surprised that neither the school nor anyone that they had interacted with, had laid out for them the low, extremely low likelihood of permanent residence through this process now, and they were older applicants and highly unlikely even with going to school getting an extra 50 points, you know, four or 40 points, or 35, depending on, you know, what the situation was with the spouse for Canadian work experience. You know, with a one year post grad, we've been saying this for years, don't do a one year program, because it's not going to give you enough time. Well, now in light of everything that's transpired from the fall all the way through till now with the caps and the restrictions on spousal open work permits, the options available for people are very, very limited. And guess what province they were destined to, Alicia?"
"Alberta?"
"Close. Yes, Ontario, you know, where 50% of people go. Well, how many options are available in Ontario, even with their increased, you know, allocations within the OIP this year from the federal government. And so you look at these, these individuals, and so I can't tell them not to come. But what I did was I laid out the realities, and I said, Look, if this education looks like it's something that's really going to be beneficial for your family, and just take PR off the table, and make your decision based on that, if it's going to give increased opportunities for you back at home regardless, fantastic, then yeah, go take a run at it, see if it's a possibility. And then, if something magically happens with permanent residence, some change some policy shift, you know, that then opens up a door, maybe a category based draw, or something within the province itself opens up for a certain set of, you know, industries that that this individual's experience falls under will then consider that a bonus. But it's, you know, I wish more people would talk about these things. And, you know, but let's face it, Alicia, one report I read suggested that I think it was over $22 billion a year. You know, we're we're fed into the Canadian economy as a result of the International Student Program. And so when there's big money, there are people looking to make big money. And in the article, and I wrote a blog on this topic, my six key immigration takeaways, which forms the foundation of, of our little discussion today. And you can find this on our Holthe Immigration Law website as well, if you want to read a few more little insights. But in here, one of the things that I pointed out was one of my favorite books, Who Moved My Cheese by Spencer Johnson, and it's all about the need to be willing to change. And when your cheese that you're relying upon to feed you and your family is running out, then you need to be willing to be mobile and make changes. And I think that's one of the things I love most about our firm, Holthe Immigration Law, is that because of our size, and because of our willingness to adopt new things, we can pivot pretty quick if we need to. And I think for immigration practitioners who are heavily involved in the international student process, you know, the beginning of this year was a real wake up call. And if your whole practice is based on recruiting international students, and in placing them with schools and helping with study permits, well, the world is definitely shifting and, and it might be time to consider looking at some different cheese. So we'll see how all of that ultimately plays out. As you know, I don't think the Liberal government is done with their measures. And the steps that they're taking to adjust temporary resident intake, we know that for post grad work permits, that they've restricted those for some schools granted. And we also know that for, like I said for spousal open work permits, currently only masters, and all of these measures are designed to, to, you know, create as number two here indicates a sustainable immigration strategy. So, only time will tell. All right, number five, focus on economic and community integration. So, there's a reality that it's one thing to approve a study permit. And it's another to ensure that the individual can come and safely study. But we're hearing stories of, you know, 12 people packed into a three bedroom home because there isn't a place to stay. Or even if there are the costs of renting a place, when you're on a student budget, excuse me, it's just so off the charts that it's unattainable. And, you know, we look at our emergency rooms, we see how they're backed up. And all of these social supports, whether you're a temporary resident coming into Canada, or whether you're a newcomer, who's recently immigrated. And whether you're an economic immigrant, or someone who's come through the permanent rest of the refugee process, you know, we all share in these, these supports, we all access these social supports. And, you know, it's in all of our best interests, that when people come to Canada, they can integrate and get on their feet as quickly as possible. The larger base we have of taxpayers who are working and contributing to our social networks, the better it is for everyone. And when people struggle when they come here and don't get on their feet, then it puts even more strain on the social supports for Canadians and permanent residents in general. And, like I indicated in the blog posts, my concern is that this is going to become an election, you know, a wedge issue in the coming election. And, and it doesn't have to be as long as things are managed. And that because I think generally, you know, if you were to poll people, even a couple years ago, Alicia, the vast majority of Canadians would agree that immigration is important for our country. But recently, it's it's there's been a little bit of a shift as a result of politics. Absolutely. You know, the conservatives have been just pounding on the Liberals at every opportunity they can, rightly or wrongly, you know, pointing to their immigration policies is creating the housing shortages and all of these things, which for sure, you can't remove those from being a factor in playing a role in the lack of housing, for example, but it's not the sole cause. And so there's a balance with all of this that, that I hope people will be able to see through when they are, you know, when they're listening to all of the political platforms that are going to surface here when it comes to the election. But what's your take, Alicia, on, you know, this the importance of a country being able to actually have the support networks in place?"
"Yeah. And I find the rhetoric around what was going on with housing to be really unfortunate, I think it's completely unfair to try to blame the housing crisis on immigration, I think those are not causally related. There are of course, correlations. And correlation is not causation. But the housing, lack of housing in Canada has been in the works for decades. And that has to do with municipalities, it has to deal with a lack of construction labor force, it has to deal with, you know, inflation, the cost of raw materials, there are so many other things that are going on. And I think it becomes difficult when people start to have a scarcity mindset when they start to worry about affordability. And then they look for things to blame. And I would hope that we look at the overall picture and say, you know, we just do not have the birth rate to be able to support our population. And so really, the only way that Canada can continue to function is because we have an influx of skilled workforce. And that is something that is a requirement for us to continue to thrive, to be able to provide services, to be able to compete in a global market, to be able to have people who are innovative, who have diverse experiences from all over the world. And so yes, absolutely. Everybody needs to be able to have a place to live and affordability and groceries and essentials. And to do that well and to make sure that we are integrating through our community supports is essential. And so I'm glad that they are linking funding to community integration. And it does also make sense to link a prioritization on having some sort of economic feedback loop with respect to what sort of immigration programs are we going to emphasize? So if the government is looking at permanent residents, that's something that's been going on for years and years, and now bringing in the temporary resident piece. So more and more having temporary residents, so visitor visas, study permits, work permits tied to economic goals, and that's the direction we see the government moving. Yes."
"All right. Number six, targeted draws. And those, you know, who are keenly watching this are realizing that more and more the categories, and those category-based draws that the government has identified as a priority, once again, from an economic standpoint, are going to be some of the few pathways remaining to get into Express Entry, the days of general draws, although they're still happening, have put the competition at a level that is just out of reach of most candidates. French drives a lot of that ship, the Provincial Nominee programs and the nominations also contribute to those high general draws. But when it comes to human capital alone, often people are just not going to be behind them unless they have work experience in the realm of one of these targeted draws. So people are asking, Well, does the budget give any hint? Does it suggest anything about the current categories? Are they going to change is there you know, any industries in there that were maybe hinted that that could be an indicator of what may come? Well, we know Alicia, that they're not changing this year, any of the category-based draws, so they're going to remain the same and that holds true? When you look at where the funding has been allocated within the budget, it does hit on all six to some extent, directly or indirectly, of the of the different industries, you know, in particular, I was able to find references to construction, which is in the trade section healthcare, of course, extra funding for, you know, credential recognition, like we talked about already, information technology and artificial intelligence, which is within STEM. And so obviously, these specific industries are definitely highlighted as well as French, right? French language, transport, agriculture, they were all touched on. But people are asking as well, well, are there any up and coming sectors? Well, what did they highlight where is money being allocated, clean technology, clean energy, electric vehicle supply chain, critical mineral strategy, and the biofuel sector. So these are some particular industries where if I was looking to study in Canada, and I did have a long-term desire to potentially remain, I'd be looking at education in those areas, all of these areas, as at least giving a potential possibility of future permanent residence options, or at least increasing the odds, as compared to say, a regular business degree Alicia, where, you know, a business manager is never going to be on an occupation and demand list in Canada, it's just not going to happen. Whereas in the past, many, many students have come and studied in business programs throughout the country. So those are, you know, at least and what we can see from the budget, the status quo will remain, at least, you know, within the next fiscal year here, and then we will see what happens after if they choose to expand or if there are other industries that make a run. And remember, lobbying is a big part of this every bit as much as statistics and industries that are more organized and, and, you know, that are in there and can really make the case for the shortages and the need. Agriculture is there for a reason. You know, for years, when I started my practice, I couldn't get those guys together, you know, the, the family, you know, the family farm was driving the ship, and everybody was just worried about themselves, they weren't collectively coming together. The first group to actually do it in Alberta was the swine producers, you know, the pig farmers, they actually had their act together and they got together as a you know, as an association and lobbied the provincial government in Alberta, to open up pathways through the Alberta now advantage immigration program. And I, you know, I'm like, I grew up on a cattle farm and my goodness, getting those guys together, it's like pulling teeth, but now they're, they're realizing that if they want to really help their industry succeed, and labor is always one of the challenges. They have to come together collectively to lobby as one united voice. And so we'll see how that impacts."
"Yeah, and one thing to keep in mind with the targeted draws is that, you know, yes, industry consultation has happened. They do do surveys, they do engagement with stakeholders, but really they are looking at long term chronic shortages and labor force and so on. Unless those industries can put some data and statistics behind what they're trying to lobby for, you know, the federal government for targeted draws is really basing this in statistical analysis. And if you want to know which of those occupations, it's not just the sectors, it's also only specific NOC codes within those sectors that are on the targeted list, make sure to go and check the Canadian occupational projection system, that comp system because that's where they're getting their data for where we have chronic shortages. This is not just kind of flash in the pan. We're missing a few of these NOCs, it's this is where we always have chronic shortages for years and years."
"Exactly. Alright. Just when you thought that was our top six list, we actually do have one last one. That's a little bonus. And Alicia, that's our fee increases where money is required to run programs, the cost of those programs increases, therefore the fees increase. So what do we have in store here, Alicia, and we do have a blog post on our website, go check it out on the fee increases that are going to be rolling out. But just very quickly as we wrap this up, can you just touch on this little bonus with fee increases across the board?"
"Yeah, so federal fee increases. So the government, the federal government, IRCC has said, you know, they have to deal with inflation too. And so every two years, they are going to be posting the increased government fee ratios. And so go take a look and make sure that if you're going to be filing your permanent resident application that you know what those increased fees are, they are also doing inflation for cost of living for temporary application fees. So that's something that is a moving target too but right now those PR fees are increasing, that's going to happen very shortly. And also, we've noticed some other fee increases through the Provincial Nominee programs as well. So for example, Alberta used to be a $500 application well used to be free then it was $500. And now as of April 1, 2024, it is now $840 to just make your application like put it in so be careful with those fee increases. That is something that the federal government is saying is required now to be able to provide high service level standards."
"Indeed. Alright, well, that wraps up this episode of the Canadian Immigration Podcast. As always, if you have any good ideas on future topics, Alicia and I are pretty adaptable. And we were pretty responsive to changes and, and a bunch came out yesterday. We're releasing this episode today. So it's all about speed. So thanks for joining hope you like it. And don't hesitate to subscribe and make sure that you leave a review and in iTunes and Spotify wherever you're listening to the podcast because it helps to get the reach out. And of course, if you're watching here on YouTube, don't forget to subscribe and share with those who you feel might benefit from this content. Thanks a lot, Alicia. Take care everyone."
"Thank you for listening to the Canadian Immigration Podcast, your trusted source for information on Canadian immigration law policy and practice. If you would like to book a legal consultation, please visit www.holthelaw.com You can also find lots more helpful information on our Canadian Immigration Institute YouTube channel where you can join Mark on one of his many Canadian immigration live Q&As. See you soon and all the best as you navigate this crazy world we call Canadian immigration."
